Housing to bounce back next year?

File photo Dr. Chris Chmura of Chmura Economics and Analytics told a somber group of real estate professionals last week that 2009 will be another down year, but the economy guru hopes for a turnaround in April next year. That's when she figures the metro area will have reduced its supply of homes for sale to four months - a healthy selling environment. Currently, there is almost an 11-month supply of homes in the metro while Chesterfield has a one-year supply.

There are a number of variables impacting the housing market, Churma told those who attended the Home Building Association of Richmond's local forecast breakfast seminar last Thursday. Many of them are tied to unemployment, which is expected to climb this year, though metro Richmond is faring better than the state and nation. Other factors include the national economy and housing affordability.

To aid their cause, 37 homebuilders trekked to Washington, D.C., last week to lobby senators Jim Webb and Mark Warner to include homeowners in the federal financial stimulus package. At press deadline, the Senate proposal includes the lesser of a tax credit of $15,000 or 10 percent of the purchase price over up to two years. Buyers would have to live in the home for two years as their principal residence.

Chesterfield recorded 207 foreclosures last year, accounting for one in every 562 homes in the county. Churma said the federal government is trying to get the mortgage rate down from 5.28 percent to 4.5 percent.

She predicted there will be 30 percent more new homes built in 2010 compared to this year, but the number of new homes is at a 20-year low. An additional 30 percent growth is projected for 2011.

Lloyd Mason Poe of Lifestyle Builders and Developers recommended that those in the industry diversify, get into the remodeling business and build smaller homes. The price of new homes has grown from three times household income to four times.

"We need to get below three times," he said. According to 2008 Claritas data, the median household income - half above and half below - in Chesterfield is $69,801.

Poe cited research that shows buyers are willing to pay more to be more energy effi- cient if they break even on energy costs in six years.